Changes in the IVD industry under the 2025 China US tariff game

Policy background and industry turbulence

On April 4, 2025, the Tariff Commission of the State Council issued a notice imposing a 34% tariff on imported goods originating in the United States. This policy was officially implemented at 12:01 pm on April 10. This tariff policy, known as "reciprocal retaliation," has had a structural impact on the in vitro diagnostics (IVD) industry. Data shows that about 15% of China's annual imports of IVD products come from domestic production in the United States, and after the implementation of the new policy, the comprehensive tax rate for related products has exceeded 50%.

Supply Chain Response Strategies for Foreign Enterprises

(1) In the field of reagents, molecular diagnostic reagents are the first to bear the brunt, and the cost of core raw materials such as nucleic acid extraction kits has increased by more than 30% after tax. Due to the locked in bid price for centralized procurement, multinational enterprises need to absorb cost pressure on their own.

(2) Equipment field: High end equipment core modules such as fully automated biochemical immune assembly lines still rely on imports, and equipment procurement costs have surged by 34% after tax increases. The equipment update cycle of medical institutions may be extended by 6-12 months.

(3) Emergency measures: Some foreign enterprises have launched the "bonded warehouse+fast customs clearance" plan, striving to complete customs clearance within the buffer period of May 13th to avoid the transfer of tariff costs.

Accelerating the process of domestic substitution

(1) In the field of biochemical immunology, domestic enterprises have seized the market through the "equipment+reagent" binding model. The latest centralized procurement data from a certain province shows that the share of imported reagents has been reduced to 10% -20%.

(2) Raw material breakthrough: The order volume of core raw materials such as quality control matrix and calibration products has surged by 180% month on month, and the localization rate of key raw materials has exceeded 60%.

(3) Technological upgrade: Domestic enterprises have launched zero consumable assembly line systems, reducing operation and maintenance costs by 30% through IoT technology.

Channel ecological reconstruction

(1) The profit margin of agents is compressed: the gross profit margin of imported reagent agents has decreased from 25% to 5%, and some products have experienced price inversion.

(2) Service model innovation: A new cooperation model of "equipment leasing+testing volume sharing" has emerged, and the proportion of service revenue has increased to 40%.

(3) Channel transformation: Within two months, the number of domestic equipment channel contracts has increased fivefold, and the response time for after-sales service has been shortened to 24 hours.

Special field impact

(1) Colloidal gold testing: 80% of core raw materials rely on imports from the United States, with production costs skyrocketing by 34%, and some companies losing 0.3 yuan per product.

(2) Life science instruments such as PCR machines and ultracentrifuges rely entirely on imported pricing, and a university's budget of 5 million yuan for equipment requires an additional 1.7 million yuan in tariffs.

Industry Development Trends

(1) The probability of domestic equipment installation in tertiary hospitals is expected to exceed 30%, and in secondary hospitals it is expected to reach 60%

(2) The coverage rate of the self-developed raw material system has been increased to 75%

(3) The market size of testing services is expected to grow by 25% annually

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